职业教育对中部地区城镇化水平影响的 实证分析: 基于城市动态面板数据

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Vocational Education on Urbanization Level in Central China: Based on City Dynamic Panel Data

文章基于1992 － 2012 年城市动态面板数据，利用系统广义矩估计法进行了实证分析，发现中部地 区职业教育有利于城镇化水平提高。其中， 2001 年前中等职业教育对城镇化水平的促进作用最大， 2001 年后 高等职业教育对城镇化水平的促进作用最大。分城市看，省会城市、地级市和县级市的职业教育均促进了城镇 化水平提高。其中， 2001 年前省会城市职业教育对城镇化水平的促进作用最大， 2001 年后地级市职业教育对 城镇化水平的促进作用最大; 并且2001 年前省会城市、地级市和县级市中等职业教育对城镇化水平的促进作 用均最大，但较地级市和县级市，省会城市中等职业教育对城镇化水平的促进作用最大; 2001 年后省会城市和 地级市高等职业教育对城镇化水平的促进作用最大，县级市依然是中等职业教育对城镇化水平的促进作用最 大，但县级市高等职业教育对城镇化水平的促进作用正在逐渐凸显; 最后，初等职业教育不利于中部地区三类 城市的城镇化水平提高，但效果并不显著。

Based on city dynamic panel data from 1992 to 2012，using the System GMM to overcome the endogeneity issue，this paper found that vocational education is conducive to raising the urbanization level in central China． The effect of secondary vocational education was largest before 2001，while the effect of higher vocational education was largest after 2001． As far as cities are concerned，vocational education promotes the urbanization level of provincial capital cities，prefecture level cities and county-level cities． The effect of vocational education was largest in provincial capital cities before 2001，and largest in prefecture level cities after 2001． The effect of secondary vocational education was significant in all three types of cities but largest in provincial capital cities before 2001． After 2001，the effect of higher vocational education was largest in provincial capital cities and prefecture level cities while the effect of secondary vocational education was largest in countylevel cities，with the effect of higher vocational education gradually increasing in county-level cities． Elementary vocational education was detrimental to the improvement of the urbanization level in all three kinds of cities in central China，but the effects were not statistically significant．