校園霸凌是學校現場重要課題，國中生受升學影響，學習壓力與適應困難，加上課業學習興趣缺缺，以及同儕因升學及課業的競爭產生敵意，在負向情緒下會有霸凌。但究竟國中生的負向情緒變化對霸凌行為成長的影響為何？國內外對負向情緒變化與霸凌行為成長軌跡關聯的研究相對缺乏。本研究使用LGM統計方法探討國中生三學期的負向情緒及霸凌行為成長軌跡，並瞭解負向情緒對於霸凌行為成長軌跡的影響。以基隆市國中生學習狀況資料庫的3,488筆資料，透過統計分析研究顯示：（一）三學期的負向情緒變化與霸凌行為成長軌跡呈直線下滑；（二）三個學期的負向情緒都有明顯差異，尤其前一學期明顯高於後一學期；而霸凌行為除了九年級上下學期沒有明顯差異之外，各學期之間的霸凌明顯不同。（三）學生的負向情緒起始點愈高，霸凌行為起始點也會愈高；雖然負向情緒起始點對三學期的霸凌行為成長速率沒有明顯影響，但是負向情緒成長速率愈快，霸凌行為成長速率會愈快。本研究的貢獻在於運用長期追蹤國中生資料發現負向情緒對霸凌行為產生重要影響。學校應提出防制校園霸凌的安全計畫及教師應把情緒管理融入課程，瞭解學生負向情緒原因，提出改善策略，以降低霸凌產生。

School bullying is a critical issue in educational settings. For junior high school students, academic pressures related to high school entrance examinations, difficulties in adapting to school life, and a lack of interest in academic learning often contribute to negative emotions. Additionally, competition among peers over academics and school admissions can foster hostility, further intensifying bullying behaviors under the influence of negative emotions. However, the specific impact of changes in negative emotions on the development of bullying remains unclear. Research on the relationship between negative emotional changes and bullying trajectories is relatively limited, both domestically and internationally. This study employs Latent Growth Modeling (LGM) to explore the growth trajectory of students’ negative emotions and bullying behaviors over three semesters, and to examine the impact of negative emotions on the growth trajectory of bullying behaviors. Using data from the Keelung City Junior High School Learning Database, comprising 3,488 records, statistical analysis yielded the following findings: 1. Both the trajectories of negative emotions and bullying exhibited a linear decline over the three terms. 2. There were significant differences in negative emotions in the three semesters, with earlier terms showing higher levels compared to later terms; significant differences in bullying were observed between terms, except during the transition between the two terms of ninth grade. 3. Students with higher initial levels of negative emotions also exhibited higher initial levels of bullying; although the initial level of negative emotions had no significant impact on the growth rate of bullying in the three semesters, the faster rate of increase in negative emotions was associated with a faster growth rate of bullying. The contribution of this study lies in its use of longitudinal data to reveal the significant influence of on bullying behavior among junior high school students. Schools should put forward safety plans to prevent school bullying and teachers should integrate emotion management into the curriculum, understand the causes of students’ negative emotions, and propose improvement strategies to reduce the occurrence of bullying.