The Contributions of Human Capital, Labor and Urbanization to National Income: A Longitudinal Study from 2000 to 2020
現有人力資本與經濟發展研究較少有納入移民對經濟發展的貢獻，故本研究從聯合國開發署（ United Nations Development Programme） 及世界銀行（WorldBank）取得2000～2020年175個國家的資料，以每隔5年分析各國的人力資本（包括教育年數、移民比率與預期壽命）、服務業的勞動力與都市化對國民所得的貢獻，運用迴歸分析，獲得以下結論：一、教育年數愈長，國民所得愈高，它對國民所得的重要性隨著時間推移大幅提高，每增加1年的教育年數可以提高國民所得的5.80%～12.99%。二、預期壽命與國民所得為正向顯著關聯，每增加一歲可以提高2.84%～4.72%的國民所得。三、都市化程度愈高，國民所得愈高，每增加一個百分比可以提高0.62%～0.86%的國民所得。四、服務業勞動人口占總勞動力比率愈高，國民所得愈高，它隨著時間推移對國民所得的重要性逐漸下降，但仍然每增加一個百分比可以提高1.12%～2.68%的國民所得。五、淨移民率愈高，國民所得愈高，它對於國民所得的重要性逐年提高，每增加一個百分比可以提高1.31%～3.35%的國民所得。六、臺灣的平均教育年數高出各國平均水準1.9年，若在此水準下，國民所得應達到35,960.79美元，然而，臺灣較各國平均水準少了11,019.79美元。本研究擴充人力資本內涵，並以20年的資料縱貫分析發現，全球175個國家的教育年數、健康與移民對於國民所得貢獻逐年提高，代表各國應針對不同人力資本類型進行投資。針對上述結論深入討論，提出具體建議。
Existing research on human capital and economic development rarely incorporated immigrants’ contribution to economic development. This study obtained data from UNDP (2020) and World Bank (2020) and analyzed the human capital (years of education, immigration rate and life expectancy), the service industry of labor force, and life expectancy of 175 countries from 2000 to 2020 (every five years). Regression analysis was used for analyses. The results were as follows: 1. The longer the number of years of education, the higher the national income, and its importance to the national income increased significantly over time. Each additional year of education increased the per capita income by 5.80% to 12.99%. 2. Life expectancy had a positive and significant correlation with the per capita income. Each additional year of life expectancy increased the per capita income by 2.84% to 4.72%. 3. The higher the degree of urbanization, the higher the national income. Each additional percentage of urbanization increased the per capita income by 0.62% to 0.86%. 4. The higher the ratio of the labor force in the service industry to the total labor force, the higher the per capita income. The importance of this variable to the per capita income gradually declined over time, but it still increased the per capita income by 1.12% to 2.68%. 5. The higher the net immigration rate, the higher the per capita income. The importance of this variable to the per capita income increased year by year. An additional increase of a percentage increased the per capita income by 1.31% to 3.35%. 6. The average number of years of education in Taiwan was 1.9 years higher than the average level of other countries. If this level was reached, the national income should reach 35,960.79 US dollars, which meant that Taiwan was less than the national average of the other nations by 11,019.79 US dollars. This longitudinal study contributes to existing knowledge by expanding the connotation of human capital. Based on 20 years of data, a longitudinal analysis found that the number of years of education, health, and immigration in 175 countries around the world had contributed to the increase in the per capita income year by year, which meant that countries should focus on different types of human capital investment. In response to the above conclusions, in depth discussions and suggestions were made.
|關鍵詞||人力資本、都市化程度、服務業勞動人口占總勞動人口比率、國民所得、human capital、degree of urbanization、ratio of the labor force in the service industry to the total labor force、per capita income|