承诺续扩现象及其心理机制

Escalation of Commitment and Its Psychological Mechanisms

承诺续扩是指决策者在面对失败的结果时，仍然决定向先前的行动持续投入资源的现象。目前，自我申辩理论、前景理论和决策困境理论是承诺续扩解释机制中较有影响的三种理论。以往的相关实证研究所发现的影响承诺续扩的因素可以归为计划因素、心理因素、个体差异因素以及情境因素等四类。今后的研究有必要关注各解释机制的整合、相关变量之间关系体系的构建和因果路径的确定以及承诺续扩对决策者心理与行为可能造成的影响等问题。

Escalation of commitment (EOC) refers to the phenomenon whereby， in the face of negative consequences， decision-makers increase resource commitment and risk further losses. There are three influential theories for explaining this special phenomenon， namely prospect theory， self-justification theory， and decision dilemmas theory. The determinants of EOC found in empirical studies can be categorized as project variables， psychological variables， individual differences， and situational variables. In the last part of the paper， it proposed that future research should further probe into the problems such as integrating different explanatory mechanisms， and examining the psychological and behavioral effects of EOC on decision-makers.