Delphi分析發展、應用問題與改進（上）

Development, Application Problems and Improvement of Delphi Analysis (I)

Delphi分析廣受教育研究採用，屢見創新分析實務做法，但存在一些應用問題影響其分析效益。對此，本研究說明有關Delphi分析理念、分析取向、運作流程、應用實務等發展成果，進而討論涉及專業評估不足、分析嚴謹性偏弱、新法應用落後、採用係數簡略、運作生態薄弱等八項問題，並提出強化學理和方法研究、建立品管機制、結合多元統計、設計專用程式等改善做法。另設計適用傳統Delphi分析的程式適合SPSS作業環境，其操作簡易，提供豐富分析資訊，能大幅降低分析成本。

delphi method are used prevail among education study. Various in¬novative analytic practices about Delphi analysis have been proposed, but on the other hand several application problems also impacted its benefits. The study illustrated analytic ideas, analysis approaches, operational pro¬cedures, and practices of application on Delphi method. Moreover using Delphi method encountered with eight problems that related with insuf¬ficient professional assessment, weak rigidness in analysis, lag of adopting new methods, using oversimple consensus measurement coefficient, and frail operational ecology. Therefore, the study proposed some resolution strategies: enforce research on theory and method for Delphi analysis, build quality control mechanism, use various statistical methods, and design specific programs. Finally several specific programs for classic Delphi analysis worked on SPSS platform that conduct easy and rapidly, provide rich analytic information, as well as reduce most cost of analysis.