“全面二孩”政策下我国高等教育普及化进程

Process of Universal Higher Education Under the Two-Child Policy in China

The implementing of Two-Child policy， which was enacted by the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 2015 ， will affect the future school-aged population of higher education and further influence the process of popularizing higher education in China. The purpose of this study is to predict the changing trends of the mid- to long-term school-aged population of higher education， gross enrollment rate， number of students enrolled in higher education，and the process of universal higher education. Based on Chinese 2010 census data， the paper uses the CPPS software developed by Wang Guangzhou to predict the school-aged population of higher education from 2017 to 2040， and establishes a logistic model to predict the gross enrollment rate of higher education based on the gross enrollment rate of higher education from 1990 to 2016. And the number of students enrolled in higher education is estimated based on the age-appropriate population and gross enrolment rate. The final results show that the population of China，s school-aged population of higher education will basically show an exponentially increasing trend by 2040. Meanwhile， the gross enrollment rate of higher education in China will exceed 50% in 2019 and it will enter the stage of universal higher education， which will achieve the historical transformation from the primary universalization to advanced universalization in the next 20 years. In addition， the number of students enrolled in higher education will steadily increase in the next 20 years.