义务教育年限延长的模拟研究：学龄人口预测视角

Research on Simulation of Schooling Year Extension of Compulsory Education: Perspective of School Age Population Prediction

“是否需要延长义务教育年限以及如何延长”这一教育政策的制定，是需要涉及到社会经济、文化、人口等复杂系统中的诸多因素的决策行为，是借助计算机模拟技术为教育决策提供支持的典型应用。该文聚焦于决策支持系统的预测模型，以展现决策模拟支持系统如何通过模型设计和计算机模拟技术的应用实现对决策的支持；基于人口预测的视角，采用LESLIE人口模型对我国基础教育的学龄人口未来发展趋势进行预测，根据计算机模拟预测2016-2025年的学龄人口变化趋势，为决策提供依据。

The decision of schooling year extension of compulsory education is closely related to economy， culture and population. Based on the data analysis technology， according to the sixth national census data and the historic population data， we use the LESLIE population model to predict the development trend of the school age population in the future. Through the analysis of features of the school-age population trends of 2016-2025 years， combining with the education decision theory， several countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.