转移支付增加地方教育支出了吗——基于2001 — 2009年地级数据的研究

The Effect of Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfer on Local Education Expenditures: Based on Data from 2001 to 2009

According to data from the year of 2001 to 2009， this paper investigates the effect of intergovernmental fiscal transfer on local education spending in China. Theoretical analysis indicates that because local government is more likely to ignore education expenditures， and fiscal transfer has serious default， fiscal transfer may not be able to increase local education expenditures. The empirical data which suggests the proportion indicator and the per capita indicator leads in five conclusions. First， fiscal transfer is not found to have significant effect on education expenditures. Second， although general transfer is proved to have positive effect on education expenditure in both per capita and proportion from 2001 to 2006， the actual effect is very limited. Especially in the year of 2007 to 2009， it hardly has any significant effect. Third， earmarked transfer is suggested to have negative effect on education expenditure in proportion， but has a positive effect on per capita expenditures. Fourth， the effect of fiscal transfer varies among different regions: It has better effect in undeveloped regions than in developed regions. Finally， as suggested by data from 2001 to 2006， fiscal transfer mainly has more effect on the education expenditure of county and township government rather than that of city. Consequently， this research implicates that more attention should be offered to earmarked transfers and block grants， and local governments' responsibilities should be clearly and precisely stated.