谁是高等教育的最大受益者？——来自转型中的中国的经验证据

Who Benefits Most from Higher Education Expansion? Empirical Evidence for Transitional China

基于1992年到2008年进行的6次全国性住户抽样调查数据，本文利用倾向得分匹配法，考察了高等教育扩张前后教育回报率的差异及其变化。在控制了样本选择性偏差后，倾向得分匹配结果与反事实分析框架下的因果推断相一致：高等教育回报率并不是呈均等化分布的，而是由不同的选择机制和收入预期所决定：理性行为理论表明谁最有可能选择进入大学，也将是从高等教育中获益最多的；逆向行为选择理论则表明原本受教育水平和收入水平都普遍较低的从业者，其选择进入大学接受再教育的倾向性较高，而且一旦其选择进入就会受益最多。

Using the National Households Survey data from 1992 to 2008, this paper examines the differences and changes on the rate of returns to education before and after higher education expansion by means of propensity score matching. By controlling sample selection bias, propensity score matching shows that the rates of returns to higher education are not distributed equally. Instead, it depends on different income expectations and selection mechanisms. The rational behavior theory suggests that those who are the most likely to choose entering college benefit most from college. In contrast, reverse behavioral choice theory asserts that workers who have low education level and low socio-economic status have higher tendency to enter college, and if they do choice so, they will benefit most from higher education.