香港过度教育现象及其与行业发展的关系分析

Study on Over-education and Its Relationship with the Development of the Industries in Hong Kong

本文利用1996－2006年的香港人口普查数据，采用众数法和标准差法，对不同工龄和不同行业的雇员的过度教育发生概率进行了测度，并运用ORU模型估算出过度教育对雇员工资收入的影响效应。在此基础上，进一步研究了香港主要行业的过度教育发生率与其对GDP贡献比率之间的关系，发现二者之间存在着显着的U形关联，即在增长较缓慢和较快速的行业中，过度教育发生率显著较高。因此，研究过度教育应进入不同行业内加以审察。此外，在这两类行业中雇员的教育水平有很大差距，过度教育并非单纯的"教育供应"过量问题，而更多是一个"教育需求"问题。过度教育在不同行业中所起的作用，以致对整个经济转型所产生的影响，才是问题的核心。

In this paper, Hong Kong Census data 1996-2006 were used to estimate respectively the rate of over-education of employees with different working experiences and in different industries. Further analysis found that the incidence of over-education was in a U-shaped distribution among different industries ranked according to their ratio of contributions to local GDP. That is, the incidence of over-education was high in the low-growth and the high-growth industries. .Hence, researches on over-education should examine the phenomenon inside different industries. Besides, the education levels of employees in these two extreme industries were different. Over-education should not simply be a problem of "supply" of excessive education, but more a problem of" demand" for appropriate education. The role of over-education in various industries and in the transformation of the whole economy should be the central issue.