谁失业、谁就业、谁升学——2003年-2009年中国高校学生毕业后发展路径选择的观察

Who Gets Unemployed%2C Employed%2C or Admitted to the Graduate School?——An Investigation of the Employment Situation of College Graduates in China between 2003 and 2009

本研究利用2003年-2009年北京大学实施的全国高校毕业生调查数据，考察高校学生毕业后发展路径选择的变化趋势及其影响因素。研究发现:(1)随着就业竞争加剧和金融危机所带来的冲击效应，高校学生的毕业后发展路径选择呈现多元化格局，其中继续升学和非传统型就业群体比例增加;(2)高校毕业生中有超过四分之一的群体在毕业后陷入失业困境，其中女性，来自农村地区、家庭社经地位和文化资本积累不足等先致性因素导致毕业生陷入失业困境的概率增高;(3)高校学生毕业后发展路径受到个体特征、所属高等院校特征、劳动力市场发展状况以及宏观社会经济发展环境等多层面因素的影响。

In recent years， the employment of college graduates has become a focus of higher education policy and research in China. This article analyzes the data of National College Graduate Survey conducted by Peking University between 2003 and 2009，and examines the trend of development choice of college graduates as well as the influencing factors. Results show that (1) due to the intensified competition in the job market and the impact of financial crisis， college graduates show a multiple pattern of post-graduation choices， with increased proportion of college graduates entering graduate school and non-traditional professions; (2) over a quarter of college graduates go unemployed， with increased likelihood of unemployment attributed to gender (female disadvantage)， low SES， rural origin， and insufficient cultural and capital accumulation; (3) the employment choices are influenced by multi-level factors including individual differences， graduate universities， job market， and macro socio-economic environment.