2000〜2020 年全球的教育年數成長對國民所得成長軌跡之影響

The Impact of Global Years of Education Growth on National Income Growth Trajectory from 2000 to 2020

教育發展與國民所得是全球永續發展的核心議題，但現有文獻中，較少採用縱貫研究設計探討全球教育年數成長變化對國民所得成長軌跡的影響。本研究從聯合國開發計畫署及行政院主計總處蒐集2000年、2010年與2020年175個國家之資料，涵蓋全球約98%的人口，其中三分之二屬於開發中經濟體。研究顯示：一、全球的教育年數由2000年的6.76年上升至2020年的8.98年，20年間增加2.08年；同期間國民所得由15,438.38美元提升至18,724.72美元，增加3,826.34美元。臺灣在這三個年度的教育年數與國民所得都遠高於全球平均值。整體而言，教育年數與國民所得皆呈現線性上升趨勢。二、三個年度之間均呈現顯著差異，2020年的教育年數及國民所得均高於2010年與2000年；然而這兩項成長幅度均明顯趨緩。三、潛在成長模式分析顯示，教育年數的起始點對國民所得起始點與其成長幅度皆具有顯著正向影響；教育年數成長幅度愈高，國民所得成長幅度雖然有提升，但是沒有明顯影響。本研究支持教育發展的外溢效果，教育年數不僅強化國家人力資本與人口素質，更是促進國民所得長期成長的重要關鍵。此研究結果可提供各國，尤其為開發中國家，制定永續教育政策與提升人力資本之策略參考。

Education development and national income are core issues for global sustainable development. However, existing literature rarely employs a longitudinal research design to explore the impact of changes in global years of education growth on national income growth trajectory. This study collected data from 175 countries in 2000, 2010, and 2020 from the United Nations Development Programme and the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, covering approximately 98% of the global population, two-thirds of whom are developing economies. The study revealed the following: (1) Global years of education increased from 6.76 years in 2000 to 8.98 years in 2020, an increase of 2.08 years over 20 years; during the same period, national income increased from US$15,438.38 to US$18,724.72, an increase of US$3,826.34. Taiwan’s years of education and national income were both far higher than the global average in these three years. Overall, both years of education and national income showed a linear upward trend. (2) Significant differences existed between the three years; both years of education and national income in 2020 were higher than in 2010 and 2000; however, the growth rates of both indicators have slowed significantly. (3) Latent growth modeling analysis showed that the starting point of years of education had a significant positive impact on both the starting point and growth rate of national income; furthermore, while the growth rate of years of education increased, the growth rate of national income did not have a significant impact. This study supported the spillover effects of education development, showing that years of education not only strengthened national human capital and population quality but were also a crucial factor in promoting long-term national income growth. The results of this study can provide strategic references for countries, especially developing countries, in formulating sustainable education policies and enhancing human capital.