以系統動態學觀點探討國中線上教學之影響因素：以疫情期間師生觀點為基礎

System Dynamics Modeling to Identify Factors Influencing the Effectiveness of Junior High Online Teaching During the COVID-19 Pandemic

本研究運用系統動態學質性建模方法，透過訪談臺中市某國中7位教師與11位學生，建構新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情期間國中線上教學成效之因果回饋模型。研究採定向內容分析法（directed content analysis）進行訪談資料編碼。首先，依據系統動態學理論與線上教學相關文獻探討，建立「資訊技術」、「教師」、「學生」、「教學策略」與「家庭環境」五大分析構面，作為初始編碼架構；其次，兩位研究者針對訪談逐字稿進行編碼，辨識各構面內部之關鍵變項及其因果關係；最後，運用Vensim PLE軟體，將編碼結果轉化為因果回饋環路圖（Casual Loop Diagram, CLD），視覺化呈現各構面內部的動態機制，並採三角檢證法提升信度。本研究聚焦於各構面內部之因果機制，將多因素互動轉化為視覺化模型，於各構面內部辨識出增強與抑制回饋環路。資訊技術面呈現設備可用性與網路穩定性之雙重迴路；教師因素面顯示自我效能與數位素養之動態關係；學生因素面凸顯自主學習與家庭環境之交互作用；教學策略面展現互動設計與回饋機制之循環影響；家庭環境面則揭示資源支持與學習督導之結構性循環。

In this study, qualitative system dynamics modeling was used to construct a causal feedback model for evaluating the effectiveness of junior high online teaching during the COVID-19 pandemic. In-depth interviews were conducted with 7 teachers and 11 students from Taichung. Data were subjected to directed content analysis and visualized with Vensim PLE. The analysis unveiled five core dimensions: information technology, teachers, students, instructional strategies, and family environment. The present study focused on internal causal mechanisms within each dimension and identified reinforcing and balancing feedback loops. Information technology reflected equipment–network dynamics, teachers reflected self-efficacy– literacy interactions, students reflected autonomy–environment relationships, instructional strategies reflected design–feedback cycles, and family environment reflected resource–supervision structures. Overall, the findings suggest that stable infrastructure, teacher efficacy, student autonomy, interactive strategies, and family support induce virtuous cycles, whereas resource scarcity induces vicious cycles, deepening the digital divide. Policy interventions must extend beyond hardware subsidies to include developing systemic ecosystems that support sustainable digital education.