遠見領導及其對校長之啟示

Foresight Leadership and Its Implications for Principals

校長的遠見領導關注在快速變化的教育環境中，如何透過預見未來趨勢與挑戰來引領學校發展。本文探討遠見領導的理論基礎和實務應用及其對校長的啟示，分析在全球化、科技進步，以及社會結構變遷的背景下，校長不僅需要管理現今，更應展望未來。本文闡述由Piirainen與González在2015年提出的「遠見理論發展三層面架構」，包括認識論、過程和理論化，此一架構協助校長了解和應用遠見，將其作為知識創造活動，並透過理論化過程因應未來社會科技系統之演進。本文亦說明「提升變革能力之遠見模式」和「六項遠見領導能力模式」，前者強調領導、策略和遠見之間的交互作用，後者則定義專業未來學家應具備的六項核心能力：建立架構、掃描、預見未來、構建願景、設計和調適，以提升組織的未來導向能力。最後，本文總結提出遠見對校長領導之重要啟示，包括強化領導策略、促進創新和靈活性、提升社群參與及為不確定性做好準備。透過遠見領導，校長不僅能有效因應當前挑戰，更能主動把握未來機會。本文強調，遠見領導可協助教育領導者，特別是校長，了解和運用遠見來提升教育品質和學校競爭力之理論和實務架構，不僅可使校長更能預測和因應教育趨勢和挑戰，也能促進學校之創新和長期成功。

The principal’s foresight leadership focuses on how to guide school development by anticipating future trends and challenges in a rapidly changing educational environment. This article explores the theoretical foundations and practical applications of foresight leadership and its implications for principals, analyzing the need for principals to not only manage the present but also to look towards the future in the context of globalization, technological advancement, and social structural changes. The article details the “Three-dimensional Framework of Foresight Theory” proposed by Piirainen and González in 2015, which includes epistemology, process, and theorizing. This framework helps principals understand and apply foresight as a knowledge creation activity and respond to the evolution of future socio-technical systems through the theorizing process. The article also introduces the “Foresight Model for Enhancing Change Capability” and the “Six Foresight Leadership Capabilities Model.” The former emphasizes the interaction between leadership, strategy, and foresight, while the latter defines the six core capabilities that professional futurists should possess: framing, scanning, futuring, visioning, designing, and adapting. These capabilities aim to enhance the future orientation of organizations. Finally, the article summarizes the important implications of foresight for principal leadership, including strengthening leadership strategies, promoting innovation and flexibility, enhancing community engagement, and preparing for uncertainty. Through foresight leadership, principals can effectively address current challenges and proactively seize future opportunities. The article emphasizes that foresight leadership provides a theoretical and practical framework to help educational leaders, especially principals, understand and utilize foresight to improve educational quality and school competitiveness. This not only enables principals to better predict and respond to educational trends and challenges but also promotes innovation and long-term success in schools.