船舶主机故障概率的模糊计算

船舶主机故障概率计算在船舶风险评估中地位重要，事件树分析法忽略基本事件发生概率的不确定性，使得应用分析受限。为使主机故障概率计算分析方法具有更大的灵活性和优越性，引入模糊集的概念，把事件树中基本事件的概率模糊化，采用模糊事件树算法计算主机故障的模糊概率、进行重要度评估，指出降低主机故障发生概率的相关措施。在统计资料不全的情况下，模糊事件树方法既能进行常规分析，又能找出主机事故的发生可能性的分布规律，可为船舶安全运营提供风险评估依据。

One of the disadvantages of main engine fault probability calculation based on the event tree method is that the uncertainly of the probability of basic event occurrence is not taken into consideration， and thus the uncertainty of fault probability is unknown. In order to bring more advantages and greater flexibility into the analysis method， the concept of fuzzy number was introduced to express the probability of event occurrence. The fuzzy probability of main engine fault probability was put forward. The adoption of fuzzy event tree method facilitates the understanding of main engine fault probability distribution. It can be widely adopted into the evaluation of vessel’s operation and management risks.