以信度与效度论科举之演变

Reliability, Validity and Evolution of Imperial Examination

中国科举选拔文官的两千年历史，是一个信度、公平性和效度之间互相争斗的历史。在这一斗争中，信度和公平性渐渐占到上风。选拔的方法、过程、结果越来越可靠，越来越准确，越来越公平，可是选拔结果也越来越与选贤拔能的初衷脱节，最终效度变得非常低。

The 2，000-year history of civil administrator selection system in China is a history of struggles among concerns for reliability， fairness and validity. Throughout this struggle， concerns for reliability and fairness gradually gained the upper hand. Consequently， the method， process， and results of selection became more and more reliable， accurate， and fair. But simultaneously， the outcomes of the selection system have gradually departed further and further from the intended target of selecting individuals of virtues and abilities. The ultimate validity became very poor.