貨幣戰爭對臺灣貿易收支之影響

The Effect of Currency War on Taiwan's Trade Balance

本文主題為探討貨幣戰爭對台灣貿易收支之影響，以供政府制定經貿政策之參考。近來美元大幅貶值所引發之全球貨幣戰爭，使得包括台灣在內的許多國家遭受熱錢攻擊，面對貨幣升值壓力。本文實證研究結果顯示，台灣對美國出口和自美國進口受匯率政策之影響效果顯著，台灣對美國出口價格彈性加上進口價格彈性總和大於一，表示符合馬婁條件，新台幣兌美元升值將會使得台灣對美國雙邊貿易收支惡化。台灣對日本和台灣對中國大陸雙邊貿易皆主要是受所得因素之影響，而較不受價格因素之影響。

This paper explores the effect of currency war on Taiwan’s trade balance. Taiwan faces a hot money attack on the Taiwan dollar which was caused by the currency war. In the bilateral trade between Taiwan and the U.S.， the sum of Taiwan’s exports and imports price elasticities is greater than one. The Marshall-Lerner condition seems to be satisfied. This implies that the bilateral trade between Taiwan and the U.S. is sensitive to exchange rates changes. However， the price elasticities of Taiwan’s bilateral trade with mainland China and Japan seem to be smaller than the income elasticities. This implies that Taiwan’s bilateral trade with China and Japan are insensitive to exchange rates changes. Taiwan’s bilateral trade with China and Japan are sensitive to income changes.