高等教育经费供给与需求的国际比较研究

The Supply and Demand of Public Tertiary Expenditure: An International Comparative Study

本文从供给和需求两个方面，使用统计和计量回归的方法，对我国高等教育经费投入的现状进行了国际比较，并对我国中长期(2012~2020年)高等教育经费的供给能力和潜在需求进行了预测。实证研究的结果显示：(1)我国财政性高等教育经费投入既没有达到经济发展所应有的供给水平，也没有满足高等教育发展所必需的基本需求；(2)从供给能力看，我国公共高等教育投资比例2012年可以达到0.81%，2020年可以达到0.90%；(3)从必要需求看，我国高等教育的生均公共经费指数2012年应该超过70.0，2020年应该超过53.6。

Based on econometric and statistical methods, this international comparative study presents the medium and long-term predictions for the supply and demand of public tertiary expenditure between 2012 and 2020. The empirical results showed: (1) According to economy development level, China has neither fulfilled its supply ability nor satisfied the demand for public tertiary expenditure. (2) Based on its capacity in supply side, China's public tertiary expenditure as a percentage of GDP is able to reach 0.81% in 2012 and 0.90% in 2020. (3) Per student public tertiary expenditure as a percentage of GDP per capita should exceed 70.0 points in 2012 and 53.6 points in 2020.