兵役义务与教育机会－军民融合式人力资源政策研究

Enlist and Educational Opportunity: The Integrated Human Resource Policy Research

本文通过梳理新中国大学生兵役政策演变，在对2000~2025年间中国18岁人口发展趋势数据分析的基础上指出：第一，作为兵役适龄人口、高等教育适龄人口的标志，我国18岁人口数量在2008年达到区间峰值之后，逐渐由“总量充足”转向“相对稀缺”，2024年中国18岁男性人口仅为2008年的50.75%；第二，受适龄人口总量减少、独生子女比例增加、高等教育毛入学率稳步提升等因素影响，2010年后“兵役人口”与“大学人口”由“部分迭加”向“完全融合”的发展趋势将变得非常明显；第三，准确认识把握“军队兵员”与“高校生源”之间的深层内在联系，统筹协调兵役制度改革和高等教育改革，使适龄青年“上大学”与“服兵役”由简单排斥变为相互促成，是我国人力资源政策必须认真研究解决的重要问题。具体的政策建议是调整当前的大学生服兵役激励措施，由“入伍前的学费补偿”变为“退役后的教育资助”。

With the higher education enters the mass education stage, many high school graduates faced the choice between military service and post-secondary education. After briefly outlining the Chinese undergraduate military service policy development, and basing on the analysis of demographic trend of 18 years old in China between 2000 and 2025, this study points out: (1) As an index of appropriate age cohort, the number of 18 years old mirrors a inverse U shape curve from 2000 to 2025. The population growth reached its summit in 2008, then it began to decrease. The size of 18 years old gin 2024 will be equal to 50.75% of that in 2008. (2) By the influence of demographic change, the one-child policy, increasing higher education gross enrollment rate, the military-service available group will completely merge with the college-eligible group by 2010. (3) It has become an important issue in Chinese human resources policy which should coordinate the military service and university recruitment policy. The policy shall male military service and higher education become compatible. The specific policy suggestion is to adjust current college student military service incentive plan from “tuition compensation before enlistment” to “education aid after service”.