八八水災中氣象預報準確嗎？—從新聞傳播與學校教育談氣象素養   免費試閱

本研究依循當代社會脈絡，探討新聞傳播及學校教育這兩個面向中「氣象素養」（weather literacy）的有關議題，旨在強調社會公民氣象素養的重要，並試圖指出學校教育在此一素養上應有的積極作為。首先，本文從社會認知的觀點探討台灣現行的氣象預報機制，透過2009年莫拉克颱風（Typhoon Morakot）所引發的「八八水災」事件（“88 Flood”Disaster）作為論述起點；接著，以此事件為例，初探氣象資訊傳播的特質與兩難，比較了100 則中央氣象局颱風警報單與7 則新聞媒體電子報的文本，發現不同類型的氣象資訊傳播體系，其預報資訊的表徵方式確實各有特質，同時也存有傳播上的兩難。再從教育的觀點，分析學校教育中所涉及的氣象概念，以了解氣象素養的教育現況及可能之闕遺；最後，以科學哲學中知識論觀點，剖析氣象科學知識的可預測性（predictability）本質，提出未來氣象素養教育中如何提昇公眾對氣象預報本質的理解與溝通。本研究認為，為促進社會公眾對於氣象預報中科學知識及新聞傳播的理解，學校教育應盡速規劃並採用可兼顧科學傳播內涵的氣象概念教學策略，以促進社會公眾對於氣象傳播訊息之可接近性（accessibility），而有助於提昇未來社會公民的氣象素養及科學理解（public understanding of science， PUS），以符應科學傳播的新世代。

The purpose of this study was to understand issues about “weather literacy” under social culture in two dimensions， journalism communication and school education. It emphasized the importance of citizen's weather literacy， and also tried to highlight its importance in school science education. This study begins with discussing the mechanism of weather forecast in terms of social cognition on the “88 Flood” disaster precipitated by Typhoon Morakot in recent Taiwan. And then this study selected and compared 100 contents of typhoon warnings released by Central Weather Bureau's and 7 e-news related. The finding had point out the existence that different databases may lead to different characteristics and show the dilemma in their communication presentation. In addition， it discussed weather concepts in school education and then show education nowadays in weather literacy and some possible lacks. Following with the analysis on the nature of predictability in scientific knowledge of weather based on the epistemology view of scientific philosophy， it brought up possible deeds for school and chances to promote weather literacy teaching in the future. To enhance the public understanding of scientific knowledge and journalism in weather forecast， we should scheme out suitable teaching modules and strategies in school education as soon as possible. Such strategies should carry out weather concepts with science communication. Through this way， the accessibility of weather communication to public will be improved and promote public understanding of science (PUS) and weather literacy.