美国研究生规模与宏观影响因素的协整关系研究

An Empirical Study of Co-integration Relationship between Graduate Student Scale and Macroeconomic Factors in USA

本文以美国1975年至2008年的相关数据为样本，基于协整模型的分析框架实证研究了美国研究生规模与宏观影响因素的相关性。结果表明，国内生产总值、研究生教育经费、全职教师数量和本科毕业生数量与研究生数量存在长期均衡关系，且存在自动修正机制对短期非均衡作用动态误差的调整与纠正。其中国内生产总值、全职教师数量和本科毕业生数量对研究生数量起正向作用，研究生教育经费对研究生数量起反向作用，这是由美国现阶段的社会需求和教育政策导致的。在此基础上提出对我国研究生教育发展的借鉴和启示。

This paper utilizes the co-integration method to make an empirical research on the 4 macroeconomic factors influencing graduate student scale in USA between 1975 and 2008. The results indicate that there is a Long-term equilibrium relationship among the GDP， the funding of graduate education， the number of full-time teachers， the undergraduate student scale and the graduate student scale， and there is also an automatic correction mechanism which adjust the dynamic error of short-term disequilibrium. In the end， this paper analyzes the cause of such phenomenon and provides some useful implications and inspirations for the graduate education in China.