运用优序理论对大学毕业生劳动力市场的分析

Pecking Order Analysis in the Graduate Labor Market

本文通过发展赛廷格的分配理论，建立了用来解释大学生工资及就业影响因素的优序选择理论模型。与贝克、明瑟等人提出的只考虑个人特征(即供给方面)的人力资本理论不同，该模型从劳动力市场对不同层次劳动力需求和供给两个角度分析了大学生工资及就职于匹配工作概率的影响因素。该模型指出，就职于较好的工作岗位不仅与个人特征有关，还与许多宏观经济因素(如GDP增长率、人口增长率)和工作特征有关。本文最后分析了大学生就业及工资的长期变化趋势。

Based on Sattinger’s assignment theory， the paper tries to establish a pecking order model used to analyzing influence factors of graduate salary and employment. Different from Becker and Mincer’s human capital theory which only focused on supply factor， the model takes into consideration demand and supply factors in labor market and analyses influence factors on graduate salary and job matching probability. It concludes that one graduate’s better employment results from more than his personal characteristics and many macroeconomic factors (e.g. GDP and PGR) and the nature of job position itself matters as well. Finally the article predicts the long-time trend of graduate salary and employment.