归纳推理的抽样理论

A Sampling Theory of Inductive Reasoning

作者提出归纳推理的抽样理论，认为归纳推理实质是根据与归纳特征有关的抽样样本情况来推断结论类别具有归纳特征的可能性，其中的抽样可分为类别抽样和特征抽样两种。以大学生为被试的两个实验结果一致支持抽样理论而不是别的归纳推理理论。对于归纳推理的主要现象，抽样理论比其它的相似性解释具有更大的解释范围，特别是能够解释其它理论严格不能解释的归纳推理非对称性现象。

Inductive reasoning is an activity of the mind that takes one from the observed to the unobserved. For category-based induction， there are the following robust experimental results. For inference from a single premise， (1) similarity between the premise and conclusion categories promotes induction， (2) typicality of the premise category promotes induction， (3) homogeneity of the conclusion category promotes induction， (4) switching the premise and conclusion categories can lead to arguments with