小概率权重问题及其市场应用

Weighting of Small Probabilities and Its Market Applications

探讨了决策制定中有关小概率权重的理论问题和市场应用问题。若干实验结果表明概率的权重大小不是绝对的，而是背景依赖的，在决策问题中价值对比降低或不存在时，小概率事件权重不太可能被高估。然而，对小概率的权重也会因决策人所处的目前状况有关，个体在财富状况等方面的差异会对小概率事件的赋权产生影响。实验结果还证明有关小概率权重问题的理论发现对彩票价格制定、保险费用确定以及选择有效的有奖促销策略具有重要的启示。

This paper investigates the conditions under which the phenomenon of “overweighting of small probabilities” is less likely to occur and their implications with regard to certain business and marketing issues. Based on recent findings in behavioral economics， the authors demonstrated that when the difference in outcome values reduces， disappears， or is no longer apparent， an alternative with a small probability is less likely to be overweighed. Further， the authors suggested a “status quo” effect