2020年高等教育發展目標究竟該如何確定──基於計量經濟學的數學模型視角

How to Determine the 2020 Higher Education Development Goals: Based on the Econometric Analysis of Mathematical Models

目前，我国各级各类教育发展战略目标的确定尤其是2020年高等教育毛入学率达到40%的目标是缺乏科技依据的。根据科学、技术和社会生产计量分析的基础之上建立教育发展的教学模式以及教育发展的系统分析，可以得出：与十六大提出的2020年人均国内生产总值比2000年翻两番的奋斗目标相适应，高等教育毛入学率应达到50%，实现高等教育的普及化。

At present， the strategic goals of education development at all levels in china lack scientific basis， especially the target of the gross enrollment rate in higher education being 40% by the year 2020. According to scientific， technical and social analysis of production based on the development of education to establish a mathematical model of education as well as the development of education systems analysis can be drawn: in conformity with the target set by the 16th CPC National Congress that the per capita GDP of the year 2000 will be quadrupled by 2020， the gross enrollment rate of higher education should reach 50% and the popularization of higher education will be realized by the year 2020.