制度预期与多方博弈 ─ 国家助学贷款政策变革历程的制度变迁分析

Institution Expectation and multiple ─men Game

为了分析国家助学贷款政策变革的制度变迁过程，本文在借鉴制度预期与结果的四项原则框架的基础上，指出目前国家助学贷款面临的核心问题是制度所产生的结果由于参与各方利益博奕总是背离制定者的制度预期。运用此分析框架，本文论证了国家助学贷款要完全满足四项原则，需要消耗巨大的制度资源，其结果会造成非最优制度的实施。总认为我国国家助学贷款变革过程是强制性制度变迁，无法保证制度的及时、准确的供给。只有交替运用强制性制度变迁和诱致性制度变迁的方式，使新的国家助学贷款制度供给与需求实现态度平衡。

In order to analyze the institution change process of the policy improving of Government─Subsidized Student Loan（GSSL）， this article points out the key problem of national student loans， on the basis of drawing lessons fro the system expectancy and consulting with the four principles frame， is that the result from system always deviates from the institution expectation of policymaker because of the participation of each side’s interests and the playing chess at present. Using this analysis frame， this article proves that enormous system resources will be consumed， if GSSL totally meet the four principles， which will cause the implementation of the non─optimum system. It also indicates that the institution change process of the policy of GSSL in our country is the mandatory system changes， thus the prompt and accurate supply of the institution can’t be guaranteed. To realize the dynamic equilibrium of the new institution supply and demand of GSSL， the ways of mandatory institution changes and the ways of inductive institution changes should only be used alternatively.