教育年數與淨移民率對國民所得影響之縱貫研究

Longitudinal Analysis of the Impact of Years of Education and Net Migration Rate on National Income

本研究從聯合國開發署統計報告書（2022）蒐集2000年至2020年每隔五年的175個國家的教育年數、淨移民率與國民所得，以迴歸分析探討教育年數、淨移民率對國民所得貢獻的研究顯示：2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年175個國家的教育年數與淨移民率對國民所得有顯著預測力，代表各國的教育年數及淨移民率提高之後，國民所得增加。在2000年每增加教育年數一年可以提高28.6%的國民所得，2020年略提升至28.9%，而每增加淨移民率一個百分比原本可以增加3.6%的國民所得提高為5.3%。教育年數對於國民所得的貢獻高出淨移民率有五到十倍，教育年數對國民所得的貢獻比起淨移民率對國民所得的貢獻多出25個百分點。雖然移民人口對於國家經濟發展重要，但是提高教育年數對於經濟發展更為重要。2000年175國家的教育年數與淨移民率的條件下，臺灣的國民所得應達到28,545美元，但實際上僅有14,908美元而已，少了175個國家平均發展水準有13,637美元，2020年的教育年數及淨移民率條件下，也少了9,517美元。175個國家應針依國家發展需求對教育年數與淨移民率提出政策規劃，而臺灣的人力資本無法符應經濟發展水準，更應避免人力資本閒置與浪費。

This study collected the years of education, net migration rate and national income of 175 countries every five years from 2000 to 2020 from the United Nations Development Program Statistical Report (2022), and employed regression analysis to explore the impact of years of education, net migration rate on national income. The conclusions showed that the years of education and net immigration rates of 175 countries in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 have significant predictive power on national income. It represented that the years of education and net immigration rates of each country would increase, and the national income would also increase. In 2000, each additional year of education could increase na¬tional income by 28.6%, which slightly increased to 28.9% in 2020, while each percentage increase in the net immigration rate could increase na¬tional income from 3.6% to 5.3%. The contribution of years of education to national income was five to ten times higher than the net immigration rate. The gap between the contribution of years of education to national income and the contribution of years of education to national income was 25 percentage points. Although the immigrant population was im¬portant to a country’s economic development, increasing the number of years of education was even more important to economic development. Under the conditions of years of education and net immigration rates in 175 countries in 2000, Taiwan’s national income should have reached US$28,545, but in fact it was only US$14,908, which was US$13,637 less than the average development level of 175 countries. The number of years of education in 2020 and the net immigration rate, there was also a de¬crease of US$9,517. 175 countries should propose policy plans for years of education and net migration rates based on national development needs. However, Taiwan’s human capital cannot meet the level of economic de¬velopment, and idleness and waste of human capital should be avoided.