高等教育在學率對國民所得成長的軌跡分析

The Trajectory of the Growth of Higher Education Enrolment Rate Impacted on Per Capita Income in Cross-Countries

許多研究在人力資本對國民所得影響的分析以橫斷面資料來探究，此種取向分析僅以一個時間點，無法掌握高等教育在學率與國民所得的發展軌跡。本研究以世界銀行的資料，探討2000至2015年，以每5年為一期的各國高等教育在學率對於國民所得成長的影響情形。本研究納入95個國家包括臺灣進行探究，以潛在成長曲線分析，獲得以下結論：一、2000年各國高等教育在學率愈高，2000年各國國民所得愈好。二、2000年各國高等教育在學率愈高，對於2000至2015年各國國民所得成長速率有提升效果。三、2000至2015年各國高等教育在學率成長速率對2000至2015年國民所得成長速率有提升效果。四、2000至2015年各國高等教育在學率成長速率對各國國民所得起始點有正向顯著影響。本研究的貢獻在於從長期資料發現，儘管各國高等教育在學率持續擴充，但是不管在短期或長期都對於國民所得的成長有幫助。針對研究結論深入討論，提出建議。

"Many studies have used cross-sectional data to analyze the impact of human capital on per capita income. This kind of oriented analysis only taken a single point in time and cannot grasp the development trajectory of higher education enrolment rate and per capita income. This study used World Bank data to explore the impact of higher education enrolment rates in countries on the growth of per capita income from 2000 to 2015, with a five-year period. This study included 95 countries, including Taiwan, for exploration, and analyzed the latent growth curve model, and obtained the following conclusions: 1. From 2000 to 2015, the initial higher education enrollment rate was higher in 95 countries, and the initial per capital income was also higher in 95 countries from 2000 to 2015. 2. From 2000 to 2015, the higher the initial level of higher education enrollment in 95 countries, the higher the growth ratio of per capital income from 2000 to 2015. 3. The growth rate of higher education enrolment rate in 95 countries from 2000 to 2015 had an effect on the growth rate of per capital income from 2000 to 2015. 4. The growth rate of higher education enrolment rate in 95 countries from 2000 to 2015 had a positive and significant impact on the initial level of per capita income from 2000 to 2015. The contributions of this research was to find from the analysis of long-term data that although the enrolment rate of higher education in 95 countries continued to expand, it wss helpful to the growth of per capita income in the short or long term. In-depth discussion of the research conclusions and suggestions were made."