教育发展、人力资本积累与中国经济增长———基于１９７８—２０１４年数据的实证分析

Education Development, Human Capital Accumulation and China^s Economic Growth ： Based on an Empirical Analysis of Data from 1978 to 2014

人力资本在经济增长中具有举足轻重的地位。作为人力资本积累的重要手段，教育发展是一国经济长期增长的重要决定因素。在回顾３７年来中国教育发展取得的成就的基础上，通过加入教育变量的方法，拓展出体现教育发展影响经济增长的向量自回归模型。利用教育发展和国内生产总值等相关数据，实证估计了１９７８—２０１４年教育发展对中国经济增长的实际影响。研究结果表明，１９７８—２０１４年期间，中国教育发展水平每提高１个百分点，ＧＤＰ平均提高约０．２３１１个百分点。全面提升教育发展水平，大力提高人力资本积累质量，不断提升教育发展对经济增长的实际贡献，是今后中国教育发展应着力解决的问题。

Human capital has the pivotal status in the economic growth . As an important means of hu- man capital accumulation， education development is the important determinant of a country's long-term economic growth. The authors reviewed 37 years' achievement on education in China； and using the method of adding education variables， they developed the vector autoregression model that can reflect the effect of education development on economic growth. Based on relevant data concerning Chinese education devel-opment and GDP， the study examined empirically the effect of education development on Chinese economic growth between 1978 and 2014. The results show that during the period， 1% increase in Chinese education development could lead to 0. 2311% increase in Chinese GDP. In the future， China?s education development should focus on improving education development level， vigorously improving the quality of human capital accumulation， and constantly promoting actual contribution of education development to economic growth.