撤点并校背景下的人口流动意愿———来自农村地区的证据

Migration Desire Against the Background of School Closure and Merger ： Evidence from Rural Areas

文章使用2011年原国家人口计生委生态脆弱区、边境类型区、少数民族区等三类地区人口流动及 其影响因素监测调查数据，对农村地区人口流动意愿的基本情况和影响因素进行实证分析，重点探究撤点并校 的宏观政策背景下小学教育资源可及性下降对人口流动意愿的潜在影响。结果显示，由于政策的粗放式执行， 农村地区小学教育资源可及性的下降对人口、特别是女性人口的流动意愿具有限制性作用。在引导人口有序 流动、促进人口合理分布的进程中，增强小学教育资源的可及性能够免除农村劳动力、尤其是老少边穷地区的 农村劳动力外出流动的后顾之忧，提振其外出流动的信心。

Using the Population Migration and Related Factors Surveillance Survey data from Three Types of Areas (i. e.， ecologically fragile areas，border areas，and minority areas)， conducted by the National Population and Family Planning Commission of China in 2011，this paper examines the basic condition and influential factors of population migration desire in rural regions and focuses on the poten— tial impacts of the decline in primary education resources due to the policy of school closure and merger. Results verify their restrictive influences on population migration desire， especially that of female. To guide orderly population migration and to promote rational population distribution，enhancing the availability of primary education resources can eliminate worries of rura 1 labor force about their children’s education，especially in poor and remote areas.