留守经历影响中职学生的考学行为、辍学行为和升学意愿吗——基于浙江、陕西两省的跟踪数据

Secondary Vocational Students’ Participation in Entrance Examinations and Dropout Rate and Admission Rates at Higher Vocational Schools among Left-Behind Children : Based on Trace Data of Zhejiang and Shaanxi in 2011 and 2012

本文基于2011年和2012年浙江和陕西两省106所中职学校7411名高一年级学生的跟踪数据，分析了留守经历对中职学生的考学行为、辍学行为和升学意愿的影响。研究发现，在不控制其他因素的情况下，留守儿童、流动儿童与其他儿童群体中参加过中考的学生比例、极学率和打算上高职高专的学生比例存在差别；但在控制其他因素的情况下，留守儿童与非留守儿童在考学行为、极学行为和升学意愿上并不存在显著差别，留守时间对中职学生的考学行为、极学行为和升学意愿也无显著影响。因此，使用工具变量或者其他识别策略也许是这个领域研究的一个可能方向。

Based on the trace data of 7 ， 411 freshman students at 106 secondary vocational schools in Zhejiang and Shaanxi in 2011 and 2012 ， this paper explores the potential correlation between experience of left-behind children and secondary vocational students' participation in entrance examinations ， as well as dropout and admission rates at higher vocational schools. Analysis results indicate differences among left-behind children ， migrant children ， and other children in the absence of other factors ， such as the percentage of students who have taken the senior high school entrance examination ， the dropout rate ， and the percentage of students who intend to enter higher vocational schools. However ， taking these factors into consideration ， there is no significant difference among these three groups of students' participation rates in the entrance examination ， dropout rate ， or admissions rate at higher vocational schools. These rates are also not significantly influenced by the length of time that left-behind children are left behind. Using instrumental variables or other better recognition strategies may be the best method to promote the study in this field.