2013-2030 年我国高等教育规模发展研究——基于适龄人口和经济水平的分析

The Development of China's Higher Education Scale from 2013 to 2030 —Based on Population of the Right Age and Economic Level

《面向21 世纪教育振兴计划》拉开了我国高校扩招的序幕。在扩招背景下,我国高等教育规模发展迅速。但随之而来的是文凭贬值、学历泡沫、大学应届毕业生就业率走势低迷,高等教育规模发展与社会、经济发展不协调。在未来十几年,我国高等教育规模若要与社会、经济发展相协调,应保持怎样的发展速度? 为了得出科学结论,我们基于未来适龄人口的变化和经济发展趋势,利用时间序列法外推高等教育规模纵向发展模型,将获得的结果与横向人口、经济因素相联系进行回归分析,以5 年为一个预测单位,拟合出滚动回归模型。结果显示,2013-2030 年高等教育规模年均增长率应控制在1. 76% 内,2027 年左右我国高等教育迈入普及化阶段,到2030 年高等教育毛入学率可达60%。

" Education for the 21st Century revitalization action plan" officially lifted the veil of enrollment expansion of colleges and universities in China. Under the background of enrollment expansion, the scale of higher education in China is developing rapidly. But it is followed by another kind of phenomenon that the devaluation of the diploma,the foam of education, and the decreasing employment rate of university graduates, which shows that the development of higher education scale and the development of social economic system are misaligned. In order to coordinate with the social economic system, which level should the developing speed of our country's higher education scale be at in the next ten years? Here we use time series method to introduce longitudinal development trend of higher education scale, which is based on the analysis of the population change of the right age and the trend of economic development. We then analyze the results, connecting it to the transverse population and economic factor. We set 5 years as a prediction unit by fitting out a rolling regression model. Results show that the average annual growth rate of higher education scale from 2013 to 2030 should be controlled within 1. 8% , and China's higher education will enter the popularization stage around 2027 and by 2030. The gross enrollment ratio of higher education can reach 60% .