投资风险、选择困境与弱势补偿——大学生就业难背景下农村家庭的教育意愿研究

Investment Risk, Selection Dilemma and Weak Compensation

近年来，大学生就业难使教育投资风险凸现。本文选取中部地区湖南省的部分县市作为调查样本区域，针对就业难对农村家庭的教育选择意愿的影响实施了田野调查，并运用三阶段Logit 模型进行实证分析。研究表明，大学生就业难总体上降低了农村家庭的教育投资意愿，对就业风险的预期使农村的弱势家庭以及欠发达社区农村家庭面临着更大的选择困境。一方面，预算约束使部分农村弱势家庭有放弃子女教育的意愿，另一方面，在没有更好选择的情况下部分弱势家庭的教育意愿又非常高。由于经济机会的缺乏，欠发达地区的家庭更愿意通过上大学来改变子女的命运，这就是教育致贫产生的根源。当前，需要通过有效的补偿和保障机制加以解决。

In recent years, graduate unemployment has highlighted the risk of investment in education. In this paper, we select some rural communities in Hunan province as sample areas, and take an empirical model of multi-level Logit to analyze the effect about risk of unemployment to educational choices for rural families. The field study shows that difficult employment has a significant impact on educational choices of rural households. The rural disadvantaged families and the families in less developed communities face more difficulties in choice. On the one hand, they have strong budget constraints of education; on the other hand, because of lack of more economic opportunity especial in less developed communities, there is no better choice, so such families have very high education willing, which is the root cause of education leading to poverty. Currently, we need to establish effective mechanisms for compensation and security to solve the problem.