我国高等教育发展水平地区：差异分析

Regional Difference in China's Higher Education Development： Analysis and Prediction

文章介绍了赫斯特指数的计算方法，采用变异系数测量指标分析了我国1990年至2009年间高等教育发展水平的地区差异，在此基础上，运用分形理论中的R／S分析法预测我国高等教育发展水平地区差异的动态趋势。结论如下：（1）1990年至2009年间，我国高等教育发展水平的地区差异总体上在缩小。（2）R／S分析结果表明，我国高等教育发展水平地区差异在未来20年内将逐渐缩小，高等教育发展水平的均衡指数逐渐上升；同时，随着时间的推移，均衡指数的上升速度将会放慢，即高等教育发展水平区域差异缩小的速度将会变慢。

The paper analyzes regional difference in China's higher education developraent from 1990 to 2009 through Hurst Index. Based on this, the R/S analysis of fractal theory is applied to predict the trend of the regional difference of China's higher education developmental level. The results are as follows：（1） The regional difference of China's higher education development level was lessened in general from 1990 to 2009. （2） q~e R/S analysis results show that the regional difference in China's higher education development will gradually narrow in the next 20 years, and the balanced index of higher education development level will rise. At the same time, with the passage of time, the rising velocity of the balance index will be slow, that is, the speed of narrowing regional difference in higher education development will drop.