中国电大开放教育招生规模影响因素实证分析

An Empirical Study on Factors Affecting Student Admission Rate in the Chinese Radio & TV University System

我国现代远程教育发展迅速，电大开放教育本、专科招生规模逐年扩大，为促进远程教育规模经济的实现，有必要了解招生规模受哪些因素影响。本研究以相关统计年鉴数据为基础，从学校办学条件、师资数量和质量、地方经济社会发展水平三个方面，利用多元线性回归分析它们对电大开放教育招生规模的影响。研究发现，显著的影响因素包括校外师资数量、地区人口数以及地区人均受教育年限等，而表征办学质量的相关变量并不显著，造成不显著的原因主要是远程教育自身的特点以及远程学习者的特殊性。希望本研究对后续远程教育办学规模的控制和质量提升能提供参考。

With the increasing development of modern distance education in China, the admission rate in the open education sector of Radio & TV university has also been increasing. In order to promote the realization of economies of scale in distance education, it is necessary to know what factors influence the admission rate. This study analyzed the data of statistical yearbook from three aspects: the school conditions, quantity and quality of teachers, local economic and social development level. Using multivariate linear regression analysis method, the authors analyze how the above factors affect the admission rate and conclude that significant affecting factors include the quantity and quality of teacher, regional population, schooling years per capita and so on. However, the related variables characterizing educational quality is not a significant factor. The authors hope that this study could generate implications for follow-up control of distance education scale and quality improvement.