探討台灣私立大專院校營運盈餘、淨資產、績效與財務脆弱度預測

Evidence Saving%2C Wealth%2C Performance and Prediction of Financial Vulnerability in Taiwan Private Universities

本研究以臺灣地區2004-2006私立大專院校財務資訊，透過非營利事業財務與績效管理理論，和John M. Trussel (2002)與Carbone and Winston (2004)模式，探討國內私立大專院校機構財務績效與預測財務脆弱度，研究發現私立大專院校負債比率與收入集中度對學校財務脆弱度有正顯著影響，營運盈餘(Savings)較佳對學校經營財務脆弱度為負顯著影響，然而較大校務淨資產結構對學校經營財務脆弱度影響不顯著，研究結果與John M. Trussel (2002)研究相近，將可供為在國內私立大專院校面對少子化環境制定教育經營政策之卓參。

The study examined both financial performance and prediction of financial vulnerability as dual ways in evaluating the nonprofit organization (NPO) of Taiwan institutions of higher education( IHE). Applying prior confirmed methods of (a) Fiscal performance， including the saving， wealth， and two saving ratios (Carbone & Winston， 2004)， and (b) Four financial distress indicators – debt ratio， revenue concentration， saving surplus and organization size for financial vulnerability (Trussel， 2002)， we obtained a result that over the year of 2004-2006， some universities showed declining yearly savings obviously. The four indicators are proved to be useful in predicting the financial vulnerability of higher educational organizations in Taiwan. According to Carbone and Winston (2004)， the saving of an individual school describes its performance measure and the slack， breathing space， or vulnerability which is related to its spending or competition. Trussel (2002) found the model using the four indicators useful in predicting financial vulnerability of charitable organizations， and we followed his model and applied to the private1 universities and colleges in Taiwan. The results show that that financial vulnerability is significantly associated with debt ratio， revenue concentration， and yearly savings， but insignificantly with size. This article also discusses the implication of the findings and future research.