从六普看中国人力资源变化：从人口红利到人力资源红利

The Changes in Human Resources Based on the Sixth Census: From Demographic dividend to Human Resources Bonus

对于如何认识人力资源红利，本文提出了新的分析框架，不再局限于传统的人口红利分析框架，引入人力资本红利和就业红利两个概念，综合考量人力资源红利对经济社会发展的推动作用。依据分析框架，本文对第六次全国人口普查数据进行分析，由于教育大发展，中国正在获得大规模的人力资源红利，在未来不仅可以有效地抵消人口红利不断减少的负面作用，而且还可以保持人力资本总量的持续增加，从而支撑整个中国经济的长期持续高增长，为未来20年中国成为世界经济强国提供巨大的丰富的人力资源基础。本文认为，中国最有效的公共投资是人力资本投资，这包括对教育、公共卫生及健康、就业及培训等，这些投资将会对中国带来长期的多重的红利。

This article adopts the two concepts of demographic dividend and human resources bonus， measures how human resources bonus pushes economic development . Based on the sixth census， China gain large scale of human resources bonus， which not only counterbalances the negative effect of increased demographic dividend， but also maintains the sustainable growth of human resources. This will support the whole economic growth in China， and provide the foundation of human resources for China to become an economically powerful nation in the future two decades. The article argues that the most effective public investment s in China include education， public health， job and training. These investments will bring a variety of human resources bonus.