试论40%对于中国教育结构与社会结构的意义

On the Meaning of 40%-Gross Enrollment Rate of Higher Education for China’s Education System and Social Structure

《国家中长期教育改革和发展规划纲要（2010-2020 年）》提出，2020 年我国高等教育的毛入学率将达到40%。很多研究表明，这一目标在数量规模上是可预期的。但是，该目标的实现不仅仅是一个数量问题，它必然对教育系统结构与社会结构产生相应的要求与影响。本文研究发现，该目标实现的关键途径在于拓宽中职教育通向高等教育的渠道。这一发现在中国社会结构上的意义表现为：（1）农村低收入家庭对于教育成本和机会成本的支付能力是扩大中职教育通向高等教育渠道的主要挑战；（2）中国教育系统的结构升级有赖于以产业结构和就业结构为代表的经济发展方式的实质转变。

The National Outline for Medium and Long-term Education Reform and Development（2010-2020） puts forward that the higher education gross enrollment rate of China will reach 40% in 2020. Many studies show that this quantitative goal is expectable. However， 40% is not only a target quantity， but will pose requirement and exert influence on the structure of education system and social structure. Based on the dynamic formation mechanism of gross enrollment rate of higher education， this article discovers that the key way to the goal is to widen the channel from secondary vocational education to higher education. The significance of this discovery on China's social structure lies in: (1) The education cost and opportunity cost of rural low -income families constitute the biggest challenge to the goal; (2) The structural upgrading of Chinese education system depends on the fundamental transformation in industrial structure and employment structure which represent the mode of economic development.