普通高校录取率GM（1，1）预测模型及其应用研究

An Application Research of the Grey Forecasting Model (1,1) in the Enrollment Rate of China's Regular Higher Education Institutions

作者运用基于灰色系统理论建立起来的普通高校录取率GM（1，1）预测模型进行计算，发现在普通高校持续扩招的背景下，由于高等教育适龄人口逐渐减少、高校生源从多种渠道流失，我国普通高校的招生录取率到2023年将会出现“百分之百”现象，届时普通高校将面临激烈的生源竞争。为了保证普通高等教育可持续发展，非常有必要进行前瞻性规划，适当放缓普通高校的扩招速度，创建模式多样、富有特色的高等院校，切实提高普通高等教育质量，并积极拓展海外生源。

Under the background of a sustained expansion of regular institutions' enrollment, the decrease in college-age population and the outflow of talents through multiple channels, a grey forecasting model (1,1) of the enrollment rate of regular institutions is built in the paper. It is found that the enrollment rate of regular institutions will reach one hundred percent by 2023. By the time, the regular institutions will be faced with intensive competition of enrollment. To ensure sustainable development of regular education, it is imperative to a conduct a prospective strategy, such as slowing down the expanding speed of higher education enrollment, building a diversified and characteristic higher education system, improving the quality of regular higher education and enrolling overseas students.