高等教育制度变迁中的制创立者、机遇和预见

Institutional Entrepreneurs, Chance, and Foresight in Institutional Change in Higher Education

本文利用美国和德国高等教育制度变迁的历史比较数据，试图对导致制度变迁的三类因素的普遍性和运行机制进行评论。这些因素是：机运（或外因）、内因以及理性的人类预见。其中理性预见是引起制度变迁的干预来加以说明，并讨论了这些干预的相对效果。

This paper uses historical—comparative data of higher education institutional change in the US and Germany to assess the prevalence and the operating mechanisms of three types of causes for institutional change：chance（or exogenous factors）， endogenous causes， and rational human foresight. Concerning rational foresight—the least frequent cause for institutional change—I give examples for entrepreneurial and governmental interventions towards institutional change， and discuss their relative effectiveness.