高等教育在學率對國民所得影響之跨國的縱貫研究

A Cross-National Longitudinal Study of the Impact of Higher Education Enrollment Rates on National Income

本研究目的在探討跨國的高等教育在學率對國民所得之影響。從World Bank（2022）蒐集1980年至2020年每隔五年的86個國家之高等教育在學率與國民所得，透過迴歸分析檢定高等教育在學率對國民所得的貢獻顯示：（一）1980年至2020年86個國家的高等教育在學率擴充之後，國民所得都有增加，但增加幅度逐年下降。1980年每增加高等教育在學率一個百分比提高7.00%的國民所得；2020年僅能提升4.00%的國民所得。（二）若以1980年至2020年86個國家高等教育在學率差距對同期間國民所得差距之貢獻，高等教育在學率每增加一個百分比可以提高4.00%國民所得。（三）1980年臺灣的高等教育在學率高出世界發展平均7.93%，2000年更高出40.85%，而2020年也高出18.38%。1980年若以86國家的高等教育在學率條件下，臺灣的國民所得應達到8，234美元，但僅有2，389美元，不足86個國家發展平均有5，845美元。隨著年度往後推移，臺灣的國民所得未符應於86個國家發展平均值逐年增加，至2005年臺灣的國民所得不足86個國家平均值16，352美元最多；2010年不足86個國家的國民所得稍降為不足11，726美元，2015年降為不足6，723美元，2020年才高出世界平均發展水準有666美元。1980年至2020年臺灣高等教育在學率有擴充，這期間低於86個國家的經濟發展平均水準。86個國家應針對國家發展需求對高等教育政策提出規劃，而臺灣的高等教育無法符應經濟發展水準，有過量教育情形，政府宜從高等教育品質提升著手，提出避免高級人力投資浪費的改進策略。

The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of transnational higher education enrollment rates on national income. It collected the higher education enrollment rate and national income of 86 countries ev¬ery five years from 1980 to 2020 respectively from the World Bank (2022), and to employ regression analysis to explore the contribution of higher education enrollment rate to national income. The research showed: In 1980 By 2020, after the expansion of higher education enrollment in 86 countries, national income has increased, but the rate of increase has de¬clined year by year. In 1980, each percentage increase in higher education enrollment increased national income by 7.00%; in 2020, it can only in¬crease national income by 4.00%. If the contribution of the higher educa¬tion enrollment rate gap in 86 countries from 1980 to 2020 to the national income gap during the same period is used, each percentage increase in the higher education enrollment rate can increase national income by 4.00%. In 1980, Taiwan’s higher education enrollment rate was 7.93% higher than the world development average, in 2000 it was 40.85% higher, and in 2020 it was also 18.38% higher. In 1980, assuming the higher edu¬cation enrollment rate of 86 countries, Taiwan’s national income should have reached US$8,234, but Taiwan’s national income was only US$2,389, which was less than the development average of US$5,845 among the 86 countries. As the years went by, the national income did not match the development average of each country. It increased year by year. By 2005, Taiwan’s national income was less than the average of 86 countries, which was US$16,352. In 2010, the national income of Taiwan was less than the average of 86 countries. From 11,726 US dollars, it dropped to less than 6,723 US dollars in 2015. In 2020, it was only 666 US dollars higher than the world’s average development level. Taiwan’s higher education enroll¬ment rate expanded from 1980 to 2020. During this period, it was lower than the average economic development level of 86 countries. 86 coun¬tries should propose plans for higher education policies based on national development needs. However, Taiwan’s higher education cannot meet the level of economic development and there was an over-education. The gov¬ernment should start by improving the quality of higher education and propose improvements to avoid waste of high-level human investment.