学生贷款违约风险影响因素的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Factors Influencing Student Loan Default

从国际比较视角观察，违约是学生贷款可持需发展的主要障碍。构筑有效的风险防范体系有赖于人们对违约因素的细致观察。本研究综合运用因子分析、判别分析、聚类分析和Logistic模型等方法，对1690个学生贷款样本进行了实证研究。研究发现，影响学生贷款违约风险的重要因素包括：学费债务、就业与年龄、家庭、偿还与时间以及还款期限。尽管在不同的违约群组中，影响学生贷款违约风险的重要因子存在一定的差异性，但总体而言，贷款的总债务水平是其中最为关键的因素。

From international perspective of observation， default composes the major obstacle to sustainable development of student loan. The establishment of an effective risk prevention system relies on meticulous observation and research on factors influencing loan default. Through a comprehensive use of factor analysis， discriminant analysis， cluster analysis and logistic model， the paper conducts an empirical study on 1690 student loan samples. It is found that the important factors influencing default risk of student loan include tuition debt， employment and age， family factor and repayment period. Although there are some discrepancies between different default groups， total debt level is the key factor that influences student loan default as a whole.