升学需求和经济发展对于高等教育规模影响的变动研究

The Impact of Student Demand and Economic Development on the Scale of Higher Education

本文主要探讨地方经济情况与高等教育规模的相互关系。理论假设是高等教育发展规模不是一个单纯的数量增加的过程，而且在增量中具有一定的结构调整作用结构调整主要体现在，一方面高等教育规模和升学需求联系进一歩紧密，另外一方面地方经济发展水平越发决定高等教育的规模。采用工具变量法，考察扩招前后年份的情况发现，我国高等教育扩招促进了教育机会分配的水平，同时也使其发展水平与地方经济社会发展水平更加适应。

This study discusses the relationship between the scale of higher education and that of regional economy. Its theoretical hypothesis is that high education growth not only means quantitative expansion， but also has some effect on structural adjustment. By structural adjustment it means a closer relationship between scale of high education and demand for university access， and also a larger impact of region economy on the scale high education. Using the instrumental variable method， the study compares the data before and after the university expansion， and concludes that higher education expansion has promoted the equity of education opportunity distribution， and has also made high education development more suitable to regional economic and social conditions.