渾沌理論在教育行政上之應用

渾沌理論是1970年代後興起的典範。其基本理念如非線性、隨機性，不確定性，均與傳統牛頓式典範有所不同。本文首先介紹渾沌理論的主要特徵如耗散結構、蝴蝶效應、奇特吸引子，與回饋機能；接著參考相關文獻，探討其在社會科學與教育行政領上之應用。此外，藉由真實個案的呈現與分析，讓讀者更能一窺渾沌理論的精髓所在。文末並檢討渾沌理論在教育行政領域應用之前瞻性與限制。作者建議其宜以事後證驗分析教育現象的形式為主。

Over the past decade， educational administrators were not able to full patterns in the events seeminging minor and inexplicable until the emergence of chaos theory. The major concepts of chaotic system including dissipative structure， butterfly effect， strange attractor， and feedback mechanism were reviewed and used to analyze case study of escalating conflicts in a junior high school. Also， the prospect of incorporating the dynamics of chaos theory in to the field of educational administration was examined. It was concluded that the chaotic models should be better served as ad hoc methods unless precise measurements were developed.