上大学是有价值的投资吗—中国高等教育回报率的长期变动（1988—2007)

Long-term Change in Returns to Higher Education in China: 1988—2007

Based on CHIP urban household survey data， this paper estimates returns to higher education in China during the period of 1988—2007. We employ both the Instrumental Variable (IV) method and the Heckman two-stage procedure to address potential endogeneity bias and sample selection bias. We find that returns to higher education has increased rapidly during this period， and our estimates are higher than OLS estimates but lower than IV estimates of previous literature. Our results also show that returns to higher education for women， young employees and those from the central China have declined since 2002.