高等教育擴充、國民所得與失業率之關聯分析   免費試閱

Study on the Relationships Among Higher Education Expansion, Per Capital Income and Unemployment

基於人力資本理論，本研究以2000 至2007 年的64 個國家之高等教育在學率、國民所得與失業率，探討它們之間的關係，研究中找出過量高等教育在學率的國家，並考量其高等教育在學率、國民所得與失業率的時間落差進行分析。結論如下：一、2000 至2007 年的高等教育在學率擴充前5 名包含開發中與已開發國家，其中南韓為全球過量高等教育在學率最高者；在過量高等教育在學率的國家，其高等教育在學率對國民所得為正向影響，而對失業率沒有顯著影響。二、2000 至2004 年的國民所得對失業率為負向顯著影響，2005 至2007 年則否。三、2000 至2001 年高等教育在學率會透過國民所得影響失業率，2002 至2007 年則否。四、台灣自2001 年起為過量高等教育在學率的國家，致使經濟發展受限、高等教育在學率增加、失業率明顯提高。

This research based on the human capital theory. This paper employed the enrollment ratio of higher education， per capital income， and the ratio of unemployment to attempts to test their relationships in 64 countries in 2000-2007， in respectively. In the study， it considered the time lag of the enrollment ratio of higher education， per capital income， and the ratio of unemployment. We found as followings: (1) The enrollment ratio of top 5 higher education expansion countries included developing and developed countries in 2000-2007， in respectively， especially south Korea. Besides， there was positive correlation between the ratio of higher education expansion and per capital income， and the enrollment ratio of higher education expansion and unemployment was not positive significantly correlation in 2000-2007. (2) The relationships of the per capital income and the ratio of unemployment was negative significantly in 2000-2004， however， 2005-2007 were not， in respectively. (3) In 2000-2001， the ratio of higher education can negatively influence the ratio of unemployment by the intermediary of per capital income in over-education countries. (4) Since 2001， Taiwan have became an over higher education country. Due to the economic development recessionary， the ratio of higher education has expanded， and the ratio of unemployment was also increasing.