我国高职毕业生内部就业优势的经济计量分析

Econometric Analysis of Internal Employment Advantage among Vocational College Graduates in China

本文利用经济计量分析方法，探讨了预测和评判我国高等职业教育内部就业优势领域的新思路。研究发现，多元经济计量模型预测出同一专业或行业毕业生的收入和就业率随着其它背景因素取值的不同而不同，预测更贴近毕业生实际的专业就业率和专业与行业的收入。该模型还显示在相同背景因素条件下，不同专业或行业预测值的排序与背景因素取值无关。比较计量方法和通常使用的描述统计方法，在专业与行业预测值的优势排序方面，两种方法的结论高度一致，事后预测结果则表明计量方法具有较大的优势。本文的计量模型可以用来精细地预测特定群体的收入均值和就业率，甄选优势专业和行业。

This article introduced an econometric approach to explore how to predict and evaluate the internal employment advantage in Chinese vocational higher education. The multivariate econometric model predicted that college graduates in same major or industry could have different excepted earnings or employment probability depending on their characteristics， which provided more accurate predictions. The model also reported that conditional on similar background factors， predicted rankings for various majors or industries were independent of the value of background characteristics. Compared with the conventional descriptive analysis， the econometric approach yielded similar results in major-or industry-specific rankings; but it outperformed the former method by having a higher post-estimation prediction success rate. The econometric model could be used to select majors and industries with employment advantages and to predict earnings and employment rate for specific groups.