我国公共教育经费的供给与需求预测

The Supply and Demand of Public Education Expenditure in China：An Empirical Prediction

本文使用统计和计量回归的方法，从供给和需求两个方面对我国”十一五”期间公共教育经费进行了预测。实证分析结果显示：到2010年，从供给能力看，我国公共教育经费占GDP的比例可以达到4.11%的水平，从需求角度看，比例应该达到3.99%。因此，公共教育投资比例在4%是适宜的。

Based on econometric and statistical modeling， this paper gives predictions on the demand and supply sides of total public educational expenditure as the percentages of GDP of China during the period of the 11th Five—year Plan. The empirical results show that by the end of 2010， the supply for public education investment as a percentage of GDP will reach as high as 4.11%， the demand will be 3.99% at least. Thus ， the 4% goal， as government object is feasible.