热手谬误和赌徒谬误心理机制研究述评

Psychological Mechanisms of Hot Hand Fallacy and Gambler’s Fallacy

在知觉随机序列时，人们倾向于把序列中实际上各自独立的相邻结果看作是存在正相关或负相关的，而出现热手谬误或赌徒谬误，又称为随机序列中的正负近因效应，有关这两谬误最早的心理机制的探索中，Kahneman和Tversky采用局部代表性启发法对此进行了解释，但是这种解释也存在诸多不足，因此近期的一些模型（因果模型、Urn模型、记忆模型、适应模型和两阶段格式塔模型）分别从不同角度对两种谬误提出了新的解释。最后文章指出研究方法、神经机制、个体差异以及生活中的应用是该领域研究的几个未来发展方向。

In perceiving the random sequence， people incline to consider two actually independent outcomes as positively related or negatively related， which are the hot hand fallacy or gambler’s fallacy， i.e. the positive or negative recency effect in the random sequence. In the exploration of the psychological mechanism of those two fallacies， Kahneman and Tversky adopt the local representativeness heuristic. Since their explanation has several shortcomings， several new models（i.e. casual model， Urn model， memory model， adaptive model and two stages Gestalt model）are presented to explain the two fallacies in different ways. In the conclusion the authors point out that the research methods， neurotic mechanism， individual differences and the application in daily life would be the possible development in this field.