2020年前适龄人口变化与高等教育规模发展研究

Study on Population of the Right Age Variety and Higher Education Scale Development before 2020

未来十年我国高等教育规模应该保持什么样的发展速度？本文对2020年前我国适龄人口变化状况进行了分析，在此基础上对我国高等教育规模发展状况进行了预测研究。结果表明，依据不同的高等教育发展目标，高等教育规模年平均增长率应控制在1.1% ~ 5.5%之间为宜。到2020年左右，我国高等教育将开始向普及化阶段迈进。

In the future decade， what kind of growth speed should our higher education scale keep？The paper analyzes the variety condition of population of the right age before 2020. Then the paper forecasts the development condition of higher education scale. It draws a conclusion that the annual growth rate of the higher education scale should be controlled in the range of 1.1% ~ 5.5% according as different higher education development target. Perhaps higher education will enter into popularized phase by 2020.